SARATOGA SPRINGS, N.Y. —
BANKROLL
BANKROLL: $1,963
Today’s feature is the Grade 1 Jonathan Sheppard over fences. As you handicap, though, be very, very careful. If you have particular sets of past performances, you will not see running lines for several prominent horses.
Past performances from Brisnet and TwinSpires do not include races from Europe for both Zarak the Brave and Pickanumber. If you have a form from those providers, know that what you’re seeing is very much an incomplete picture. Past performances from other data providers, including the Daily Racing Form, have these races in their files.
SUNDAY’S RESULTS: Key horse Quickick finished third, so it wasn’t a great day. After scratches, I dropped $45.
WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: We’ll go to the eighth race, where I’ll try to extract value out of #4 REVALITA by keying her in the vertical exotics. I’m playing $6 exactas with her above #1 MISS SAN GABRIEL, #3 DESTINY STAR, and #10 CURLIN’S GIRL, and $2 “saver” exactas with those three on top of Revalita. Additionally, I’ll play $1 trifectas using Revalita on top, with those three horses in the second and third spots.
TOTAL WAGERED: $30.
SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS
Best Bet: Midnight Mile, Race 3
Longshot: Typhoon Fury, Race 9
Race 1
Pickanumber
Zarak the Brave
Too Friendly
#6 PICKANUMBER (5/2): Did a lot of the dirty work in the Grade 1 A.P. Smithwick, where he settled for second money. Here, he faces many horses that have audibled to run here after several postponements of the Jonathan Kiser, and him getting weight from the likely Grade 1 Jonathan Sheppard favorite is another plus; #4 ZARAK THE BRAVE (9/5): Was going to be an overwhelming favorite in the Kiser after running against very strong company overseas. He’ll still take plenty of money here, but this race wasn’t the plan, and the 158-pound impost makes me a bit nervous; #1 TOO FRIENDLY (6-1): Comes over from Europe and makes his stateside debut for the same barn that saddles my top selection. He was fourth of 20 in a rich race at Newcastle last time out, and that race may have had a better group than the one he tackles here.
Race 2
Midtown Lights
Cinderella’s Cause
Saratoga Kisses
#3 MIDTOWN LIGHTS (9/5): Is clearly a much better horse with Lasix and gets to run with it here after a failed try against stakes foes last time out. That race came going two turns, and this one-mile route out of the Wilson chute against a weaker bunch could be exactly what she needs to record her third win in the last four starts; #1 CINDERELLA’S CAUSE (1-1): Was second in the mud last time out at this route and comes back in less than two weeks. The inside draw is certainly a plus, though I’m not quite sure she has the early speed necessary to truly utilize that going into the backstretch; #5 SARATOGA KISSES (6-1): Didn’t break well last time, when she was a distant third going two turns. She’s another that may be helped by a cutback in distance, and I’m expecting her to be a bit closer in the early going.
Race 3
Midnight Mile
Rice entry (MTO)
Blissful
#4 MIDNIGHT MILE (9/5): Has finished second in a pair of tries against stakes foes and looms large dropping down in class. She gets Lasix for the first time, and while she hasn’t won in a while, it’s not like she’s been running badly against horses that are much, much better than this group; #3 BLISSFUL (8-1): Is another coming back to the non-stakes ranks, and she was most recently third in an ungraded event at Colonial Downs. Her early-2024 form was quite good, and her versatility is a plus; #2 EDICT (6-1): Makes her U.S. debut and boasts a resume including a pair of Group 1 wins in her native Argentina. I have no idea what she beat in those races, nor if she’s ready to go off of an eight-month layoff, but some horses campaigned there have had success in the U.S., so it’s not totally illogical to include her.
Race 4
Lord I Wonder
Helcia
Islander
#1 LORD I WONDER (5/2): Didn’t break well in her debut but still managed to salvage second money. The stretchout to a mile makes sense given her pedigree, and logical improvement at second asking would make her the one to beat; #5 HELCIA (7/2): Is one of two Chad Brown trainees in here, and this one gets both Lasix and Flavien Prat. The long layoff is a concern, but she’s been working steadily for months and has a few solid efforts at this distance downstate; #7 ISLANDER (3-1): Ships in for Steve Asmussen and showed some potential at first asking. The far-outside post out of the chute is a killer, but she’s another whose pedigree says she’ll stretch out to this distance just fine.
Race 5
Landed (MTO)
Brocknardini
Awesome Czech
#1 BROCKNARDINI (8-1): Came off a long layoff against open-stakes foes at Monmouth and got a peculiar trip in that event. Her 2-year-old form saw her win at first asking at this route and go on to win an open stakes at Laurel Park. I think she’ll relish running against New York-breds in the Suzie O’Cain, and that the morning line price is a considerable overlay; #6 AWESOME CZECH (5/2): Topped first-level allowance foes at this route a few weeks ago and isn’t a terrible morning line favorite. She was second in last year’s Tepin downstate, and it looks like she’s moved forward a bit as a 3-year-old; #2 SUMMER WHIRL (3-1): Earned the diploma last time out by rallying late beneath John Velazquez, who sees fit to ride back in her first try against winners. On paper, this is an ambitious spot, but she’s yet to run a bad race to date and may not have to be a whole lot to earn some black type here.
Race 6
Annascaul
Cara’s Dreamweaver
Young At Heart
#5 ANNASCAUL (3-1): Possesses one of the best turf pedigrees you’ll ever see in a New York-bred and debuts for Christophe Clement, who has enticed Frankie Dettori to ride. This filly is by American Pharoah and out of a stakes-placed turf sprinter. This dam, Epping Forest, has a massive turf pedigree that includes a third dam who threw the dam of Group 1 turf winner Astronomer Royal, among others; #1 CARA’S DREAMWEAVER (4-1): Has an experience edge over most of these and debuted with a solid second at this distance downstate. She passed plenty of rivals that day, which isn’t easy to do, and the rider switch to Manny Franco is a notable one; #7 YOUNG AT HEART (8-1): Debuts for a strong first-out barn and is bred to be a talented turf horse. She’s by The Factor and out of a mare that’s produced two winners from as many runners to date. That dam, Barrel of Dreams, was a six-time winner and a full sister to two stakes horses (and a half-sister to another).
Race 7
Willful Desire
Goldfarb entry
R Funny Bizness
#7 WILLFUL DESIRE (8-1): Looks like the speed of the speed in a race without many runners that seem to want to pass others. She’s set very fast fractions in several of her recent efforts and goes first off the claim for a barn that’s dropping her down a level after she ran third for a $20,000 tag last month; GOLDFARB ENTRY (4-1): Of these two, I prefer #1 AWESOME ANNMARIE, who goes first off the claim for Rick Dutrow. She lost all chance at the break last time out, and she’s a major player if she can find the two-back form that saw her win for a $16,000 tag in June; #6 R FUNNY BIZNESS (6-1): Chased a few of these last time out, but makes her first start for Linda Rice, who’s among the best in the business with new acquisitions. She’s shown she can close, and a step forward combined with the likely race shape makes her a player.
Race 8
Crushed Ice (MTO)
Revalita
Curlin’s Girl
#4 REVALITA (5/2): Had every right to need her last race, which came off of an 11-month layoff. She was a bit rusty on that occasion, but she sure looks fitter in her workouts ahead of this one, and I’m expecting a much-improved performance for powerhouse connections; #10 CURLIN’S GIRL (10-1): Has tried stakes company in three straight starts and should appreciate the class relief. She gets Lasix for the first time in quite a while, and while the post position isn’t ideal, Jose Ortiz is talented enough to be able to work out a trip, and this price seems too big; #3 DESTINY STAR (10-1): Didn’t have a great trip here last month, when she was third despite a bad break and ran in spurts throughout the race. Luis Saez seems to be getting going after a slow start to the summer, and I think this aggressive rider will be hustling her from the start here.
Race 9
Hilarious Affair
Typhoon Fury
Final Verdict
#8 HILARIOUS AFFAIR (9/2): Is a tepid top pick in a race that hits me as an absolute mess. This gelding, though makes his first start for Mike Maker, who excels with newer acquisitions and has plenty to work with here. If his synthetic form carries over to the turf, he should be a formidable foe; #6 TYPHOON FURY (15-1): Hasn’t run well in many two-turn outings, but his turf sprints look much, much better. He’s sprinted on the grass twice and hit the wire in front both times (one event saw him disqualified after winning by a nose). I think he’s doing what he wants to do here, and that he’s a major player at a big price; #9 FINAL VERDICT (6-1): Has shown speed many times of late and has hit the board in 10 of 12-lifetime starts. He was third at this route last month, and I think he could sit a picture-perfect stalking trip beneath Tyler Gaffalione in the Wednesday nightcap.
Originally Published: August 13, 2024 at 1:22 p.m.
Source link : https://www.saratogian.com/2024/08/13/horse-racing-day-25-andrew-champagnes-picks-analysis-selections/
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Publish date : 2024-08-13 19:20:25
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