Who can beat Nations Pride?

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The Grade 1, $1 million Arlington Million will be run for the second time at Colonial Downs in Virginia on Sunday, one day later than scheduled. A field of six older male turf runners was drawn for the 1 1/4-mile race.

Here is a full-field analysis for the Arlington Million with the Colonial Downs morning line. The Million is carded as race 11 of 12 with post time scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT.


1.
Integration5-2. Quality Road – Shug McGaughey / Kendrick Carmouche – 7: 4-0-1 – $681,800. Integration won the Million Preview last month as part of a three-horse field by 6 1/2 lengths on a soft turf course as the .05-1 favorite. That victory kept his record perfect in three starts at Colonial Downs. Integration began his career with three wins, his maiden score, the Virginia Derby (G3) at Colonial and the Hill Prince (G2) at Aqueduct. Since then, he ran in three Grade 1 stakes, and his best finish was a third in the Maker’s Mark Mile at Churchill Downs. The Million will be the longest race of his career. Win contender.

2. Ancient Rome3-1. War Front – Charlie Hills / Jamie Spencer – 19: 6-4-2 – $1,581,598. Ancient Rome returns to America for the first time since winning the Mint Million (G3) at Kentucky Downs in September, when he beat a field of 12 for the sixth victory of his career. This year the Kentucky-bred raced twice in England at the two Ascot meetings. Last time he was second in the Summer Mile (G2) by a half-length. The 5-year-old is a past group winner in France and had a second and a third in Group 1 stakes as a juvenile. Win contender.

3. Sugoi8-1. Karakontie – Mike Maker / Julien Leparoux – 28: 10-7-2 – $607,993.  Sugoi is in the best form of his career, and that prompted his connections to make him a $15,000 supplemental nomination. Although the 7-year-old has 10 career wins, four of them came this year. Sugoi won a pair of allowances at Turfway Park and then a $50,000 claimer on the main track at Keeneland in April. In May he became a stakes winner in the Louisville Stakes (G3) on the turf with a front-end effort at 19-1. Last time, Sugoi was second in an overnight stakes at Churchill behind the graded-stakes winner Webslinger. Live long shot.

4. Nations Pride8-5. Teofilo – Charlie Appleby / Frankie Dettori – 17: 9-3-2 – $2,831,752. Nations Pride has been training for Charlie Appleby at Godolphin’s Saratoga stable at Greentree this summer. He raced in America, Canada, Dubai, Germany and Bahrain in the last year with wins in the Canadian International (G1) at Woodbine and in a Group 1 in Germany. This year, the 5-year-old started twice in New York, running third in the Man O’ War (G2) at Aqueduct and second in the Manhattan (G1) at the Spa. Top choice.

5.
Highland Chief12-1. Gleneagles – Graham Motion / John Velazquez – 19: 4-3-2 – $766,850. Highland Chief won the Man O’War in 2022 at Belmont Park. Since, he won the Sycamore (G3) at Keeneland and was 12th in the Breeders’ Cup Turf at 26-1. Last month, the 7-year-old was second in a listed stakes at Laurel as the favorite. Toss.

6. Talk of the Nation6-1. Quality Road – Todd Pletcher / Jose Ortiz – 11: 4-5-1 – $980,610.  Talk of the Nation is $20,000 shy of millionaire status, having only once failed to finish in the top three in his 11 race-career. Recent races for the Todd Pletcher trainee include a third and a second in the Kelso and Poker, which are both Grade 3 stakes. His last nine turf starts were at a mile, so the added distance of the Million will be a big challenge. Toss.

Summary: Although extreme weather from tropical storm Debby is expected to have moved through the area by Sunday, anticipated heavy rain could have a significant affect on the Colonial Downs turf. Nations Pride has a class edge in this field as a Grade 1 and Group 1 winner, and both of those victories happened on yielding turf courses. That makes Nations Pride the top choice in the Arlington Million.



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Publish date : 2024-08-07 16:44:37

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