In this biweekly series, racing analyst Keeler Johnson shares promising horses from his handicapping watch list, reviewing runners who have recently caught his eye and previewing horses scheduled to run back in the near future.
New to the watch list
Adare Manor
Adare Manor has been a member of my watch list in the past, and I’m adding her back after her eye-catching victory in the Grade 1 Clement L. Hirsch at Del Mar. Even at 5 years old, I believe this Bob Baffert-trained mare is still improving.
Adare Manor didn’t get the best trip in the Clement L. Hirsch. She was beaten to the early lead and wound up boxed in along the rail. Then she was shuffled back a bit on the far turn as red-hot Fleur de Lis (G2) and Shawnee (G3) winner Scylla opened up a daylight lead. It appeared Scylla was on her way to victory, but then Adare Manor shifted outside and gobbled up ground to dominate by 2 3/4 lengths, completing 1 1/16 miles in 1:43.29 to secure her eighth graded stakes win.
Adare Manor was beaten by only three lengths in the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Distaff, and she might be capable of a stronger finish when the 2024 Breeders’ Cup heads to Del Mar this autumn.
Ferocious
Purchased for $1.3 million earlier this year, 2-year-old Ferocious delivered on expectations when debuting in a six-furlong maiden special weight on Saturday at Saratoga. The son of Flatter tracked fractions of 22.06 and 45.61 seconds before taking over and surging away through an 11.86-second final furlong to dominate by 7 3/4 lengths. His final time of 1:09.65 earned a 96 Beyer Speed Figure from Daily Racing Form, the highest number belonging to any juvenile so far this year. Ferocious looks like a star in the making for trainer Gustavo Delgado, who saddled Mage to win the 2023 Kentucky Derby.
Uncaged
Although Uncaged ran nearly a second slower than Ferocious when debuting in a separate six-furlong maiden special weight Saturday at Saratoga, the Todd Pletcher-trained juvenile has long-term potential for owners WinStar Farm and Repole Stable. Uncaged raced in fourth position for much of the journey, then took over in the final furlong to score by 1 3/4 lengths in 1:10.55. As a son of Curlin out of the Pioneerof the Nile mare Dark Nile, Uncaged is bred to improve with distance and maturity and could develop into a Triple Crown type next year.
UNCAGED, the 2YO son of @HillnDaleFarm stallion Curlin, breaks his maiden in the fifth race with @iradortiz up for trainer @PletcherRacing. pic.twitter.com/sLbgpmgZVK
— NYRA (??) (@TheNYRA) August 3, 2024
Recent watch list winners
Arthur’s Ride
Arthur’s Ride made his stakes debut in the Whitney (G1) at Saratoga and delivered a stunning victory. After beating favored Met Mile (G1) winner National Treasure to the lead, Arthur’s Ride set fractions of 23.26, 46.63 and 1:10.28, opened a five-length lead down the homestretch and gamely held off late runners to prevail by 2 1/4 lengths in 1:48.54. His reward was a 110 Beyer Speed Figure, stamping Arthur’s Ride as a serious Breeders’ Cup Classic contender.
Cinderella’s Dream
Facing only four rivals in the 1 3/16-mile Saratoga Oaks (G3) at Saratoga, Cinderella’s Dream left no doubt about her superiority. After settling at the back of the pack through slow fractions of 24.75, 49.80 and 1:14.34 over firm turf, the Godolphin homebred dashed her final quarter-mile in 22.41 seconds, according to the Equibase GPS chart, to prevail by 1 1/2 lengths in 1:54.92. She’s now 2-for-2 in North America, having previously taken the Belmont Oaks (G1).
Next
Next obliterated his competition for the second straight year in the 1 3/4-mile Birdstone at Saratoga, pressing a slow pace in second place before taking over without urging to win by 22 1/4 lengths in 2:57.83. Once again showing terrific finishing power, Next ran his penultimate quarter-mile in 23.89 seconds and remains an absolute beast among long-distance dirt racers.
Ways and Means
Cutting back to seven furlongs for the Test (G1) at Saratoga secured Ways and Means her first stakes victory. The 7-10 favorite pressed fractions of 22.43 and 44.54 seconds before taking over and edging away to beat the pacesetter by 2 1/2 lengths in 1:22.28. The Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint looms as a logical autumn target for this talented 3-year-old filly.
Worth another try
Rhyme Schemes
Last year’s Saratoga Special (G2) winner Rhyme Schemes ended a one-year layoff with a fine try in a six-furlong $50,000 allowance optional claimer at Ellis Park. The 3-year-old Norm Casse trainee carved out splits of 22.52, 45.52 and 57.14 seconds before faltering in the final yards to finish second by half a length. The final time was a quick 1:08.87, and Rhyme Schemes ran his final quarter-mile in a sharp 23.43 seconds while pulling 5 3/4 lengths clear of the runner-up, so all told this was a solid showing.
Off the watch list
Disarm
Gained some ground late to finish fourth by 6 3/4 lengths in the Whitney. After missing the trifecta in two straight Grade 1 stakes, Disarm might need a class drop to get back to the winner’s circle.
First Mission
First Mission likewise finished out of the top three for the second straight time when fading from a pace-tracking position to finish seventh in the Whitney (G1). He’s out of peak form at the moment and needs a rebound.
Extra Añejo
Suffered a second straight stakes defeat when finishing fourth as the favorite in the West Virginia Governor’s (G3) at Mountaineer.
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Publish date : 2024-08-06 16:36:30
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