BANKROLL: $942.25
Whitney Day is upon us, and it’s one of my favorite cards of the year. I remember going to the track as a kid the year Victory Gallop and Behrens threw it down (given all the photos he lost, if Behrens’s nose was about three inches bigger, he’d be a Hall of Famer). Among other renewals, I was also in attendance for Lawyer Ron’s romp, where he set a track record that stands to this day.
In addition to all of the stakes races, though, you’ll want to pay attention to several 2-year-old maiden races on the undercard. There are some genuine blue-chip prospects in these fields, and I think we may see a runner or two from these events in races like the Spinaway and Hopeful near the end of the meet. In fact, I like one of them enough to funnel my bankroll action through them!
FRIDAY’S RESULTS: My bankroll play made a lot more financial sense before the scratch of Stellify made Two Sharp an overwhelming favorite in the opener. She won, but I was expecting a price several times higher than what she went off at, so my win bet paid next to nothing. In addition, exacta and double plays fizzled, and I dropped $12.50.
SATURDAY’S PLAY: Cards don’t get much better than this, and I’m focusing on the middle portion of it. I’ll have a $12 win bet on #9 ANTIETAM in the sixth, and he’s a single in $5 doubles that end with #4 DIEGO VELAZQUEZ and #6 CARSON’S RUN in the seventh (the Grade 1 Saratoga Derby). Finally, I’ll use all of those horses in a $2 Pick Three ending in the eighth (the Grade 1 Test) with #1 EMERY and #6 BRIGHTWORK.
TOTAL WAGERED: $30.
Best Bet: Antietam, Race 6Longshot: Carson’s Run, Race 7
Race 1
Reach for the Rose
Assertiveness
Asbury Park
#4 REACH FOR THE ROSE (3-1): Debuted with a good second in the Royal Palm at Gulfstream Park, which awards a fees-paid trip to Royal Ascot to the winner. The pedigree says two turns shouldn’t be a problem, and this barn excels with both second-time starters and first-time routers; #8 ASSERTIVENESS (7/2): Is regally-bred, being by Into Mischief and out of top-class turf mare Isabella Sings. This is what she’s bred to do, and Flavien Prat sees fit to ride for Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher; #9 ASBURY PARK (9/2): Sold for $318,000 overseas last year and is another bred up and down to be a strong turf horse. This son of Frankel has a steady string of drills for Chad Brown and merits respect despite a tough outside draw on the inner turf.
Race 2
Probability
Friend Ofthe Devil
King’s Leap
#3 PROBABILITY (5/2): Is one of several Todd Pletcher-trained contenders on a Saturday undercard laden with 2-year-old races. This son of Improbable hammered for $300,000 last year, and all three prior foals out of the Curlin mare Perazzi are multiple winners; #8 FRIEND OFTHE DEVIL (10-1): Sold for $145,000 despite a pretty modest pedigree and has been working well for a barn that doesn’t traditionally ask much of young horses. The last-out bullet drill, in particular, jumps off the page, and it’s noteworthy to see Castellano hop aboard when he probably had a few options; #9 KING’S LEAP (6-1): Ran well in his debut, when he was third behind a much-the-best winner. He made up some ground late that day and has a right to improve at second asking.
Race 3
Deck of Cards
Cinderella’s Cause
Movie Moxy
#1 DECK OF CARDS (2-1): Has reeled off five consecutive wins, with one of them coming in runaway fashion here a few weeks ago. She stretches out to a mile, which is sometimes a problem, but she’s run well enough going two turns that I don’t think the Wilson chute will pose any issues; #5 CINDERELLA’S CAUSE (6-1): Has hit the board in each of her last six starts and cuts back after running second going two turns last month. Jose Ortiz hops aboard for Linda Rice, and she could sit an ideal stalking trip just off the pace; #8 MOVIE MOXY (9/2): Has run second in a pair of stakes races this season and figures to be the more-bet Linda Rice trainee. Her lack of a win in over a year is certainly a problem, but she does have excuses given her terrible start at this route just a week ago.
Race 4
Call Her Bluff (MTO)
Midnight Concerto
Bossy Jeans
#10 MIDNIGHT CONCERTO (3-1): Came off the bench running last time out, when she rallied from last to finish a fast-closing third in her turf debut. She gets Lasix for the first time and should have plenty of speed to run at. Any sort of move forward makes her the one to beat; #6 BOSSY JEANS (6-1): Responded to the drop in class last time out with a wire-to-wire score and faces winners for the first time. Irad Ortiz, Jr., rides back for Mike Maker, and she figures to be prominent early given her successful front-running trip on the Fourth of July; #2 DUSK (8-1): Stretches out to two turns but has a pedigree that says she should handle it. She had some trouble last time out at Aqueduct, but could have enough tactical speed to work out a solid trip beneath Manny Franco.
Race 5
Classicist
Sea Vista
Uncaged
#6 CLASSICIST (3-1): Has been working very well ahead of his unveiling in what looks like a loaded maiden race for 2-year-olds. He’s kin to Grade 2 winner Jouster, and second dam Storm Flag Flying represents one of the most productive female lines (third dam My Flag, fourth dam Personal Ensign) in recent racing history; #7 SEA VISTA (5/2): Debuts for Brad Cox, and this Godolphin homebred is another bred in the purple. His dam was a Grade 3 winner as a 2-year-old and has produced, among others, stakes winners Nash and Spa City; #5 UNCAGED (6-1): Completes a powerful 1-2 punch for Todd Pletcher, who also trains my top pick. He sold for $450,000 as a yearling and has a right to be a runner. If there’s hesitation here, it’s because his pedigree hints that he wants way longer than today’s six-furlong distance.
Race 6
Antietam
El Prestigio
Praetor
#9 ANTIETAM (4-1): Is yet another promising Todd Pletcher trainee with a precocious, win-early pedigree. He’s kin to European champion 2-year-old Air Force Blue, his second dam is a full sister to American champion 2-year-old filly Flanders, and the work tab features several strong drills; #5 EL PRESTIGIO (8-1): Is the only one in here with any experience, and he probably lost all chance with his antics at the gate and a slow start. I love the Steve Asmussen work pattern of a strong two-back drill followed by a maintenance move, and this one has every right to move forward; #4 PRAETOR (5/2): Hammered for $725,000 at Keeneland last year and is bred to be any kind. He’s by Into Mischief, out of multiple graded stakes winner Curlin’s Approval, and has flashed talent in the mornings for trainer Chad Brown.
Race 7
Diego Velazquez
Carson’s Run
Legend of Time
#4 DIEGO VELAZQUEZ (2-1): Ships across the Atlantic for the Grade 1 Saratoga Derby, which, oddly, may be a class drop for this Aidan O’Brien trainee. He most recently crushed older horses in a Group 3 at Leopardstown, and I don’t think he faces any 3-year-old monsters here; #6 CARSON’S RUN (8-1): Has a record that looks far better if you toss the races before and after his long layoff. Do that, and you’re left with a horse that has three wins in four starts and should be rolling late beneath red-hot rider Dylan Davis at a bit of a price; #3 LEGEND OF TIME (7/2): Was a beaten 3/2 favorite in the Grade 1 Belmont Derby last time out, where he stalked a slow pace and never really kicked on. I think they may go a bit faster here, which could help him, and the presence of William Buick is always a plus.
Race 8
Emery
Brightwork
Ways and Means
#1 EMERY (5/2): Has won four of five career starts and is on a three-race win streak coming into the Grade 1 Test. One of those wins was an impressive score at this distance two back at Churchill Downs, and her flexible running style could give Tyler Gaffalione plenty of options; #6 BRIGHTWORK (6-1): Hasn’t been seen since the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, but she’s been working very well here and she cuts back to a distance she’s already won a Grade 1 at. Furthermore, that win came here, in the Grade 1 Spinaway, where she overcame a tough trip to top…; #4 WAYS AND MEANS (7/5): …who will likely be favored after crushing first-level allowance foes here last month. I do have my doubts, though, largely because she’s found trouble in all five of her career starts to date. Her best effort would make her a player, but she may need such an effort combined with a smooth journey, and that, to me, makes her an underlay at her likely price.
Race 9
Smokin’ T
More Than Looks
Irish Aces
#8 SMOKIN’ T (6-1): Hasn’t run that well in two starts at Churchill Downs, but Churchill shippers have been running on this turf course, one we know this horse likes. He won last year’s renewal of the Lure Stakes, and given the likely race shape and his ability to make up ground late, I think he’s got a big shot to repeat; #9 MORE THAN LOOKS (2-1): Makes his first start since the Breeders’ Cup Mile, where he rallied to be beaten just two lengths. If he’s ready, he’s got a big chance, and this barn does very well bringing horses back off the bench; #4 IRISH ACES (5-1): Hasn’t won in a while but boasts plenty of back class and a running style that should make him dangerous. He was a close-up third in a stakes-quality optional claimer last time out, and he’s another that would benefit from a battle up front early on.
Race 10
Cogburn
Grooms All Bizness
Witty
#6 COGBURN (4/5): Is probably the best turf sprinter in America and looms very large in the Grade 2 Troy, which he won last year. Most recently, he sizzled home in the Grade 1 Jaipur over several of his opponents here, and anything remotely close to that effort would mean the race is for second; #8 GROOMS ALL BIZNESS (8-1): Gets a class test after winning four of his last five starts. He’s ultra-consistent and has shown he can run well without Lasix, which isn’t something that can be said for some of those around him; #10 WITTY (12-1): Chased a pretty slow pace in the Grade 2 Highlander last time out, where he settled for second after a less-than-ideal trip. His best game is when he’s way back and allowed to make one big run, and such a scenario would give him a big chance to hit the board here at a nice price.
Race 11
Bright Future
National Treasure
First Mission
#9 BRIGHT FUTURE (5-1): Looked beaten in his return to the races at Monmouth Park, but pulled himself together and rallied to take the Grade 3 Salvator Mile. He ran like a horse that needed a race off the bench, and he comes to Saratoga with a 2-for-2 local mark and in position to capitalize on a pretty ideal pace set-up in the Grade 1 Whitney; #3 NATIONAL TREASURE (9/5): Has won two high-profile Grade 1 races this season, including the Grade 1 Met Mile here on Belmont Stakes Day. I think nine furlongs is about all the distance he wants, and he won’t have it easy up front, but he’s a legitimate favorite who could establish himself as a frontrunner for Horse of the Year honors with a win in this spot; #5 FIRST MISSION (9/2): Was a heavy favorite in the Grade 1 Stephen Foster, but faded to fourth after sitting what looked like a dream trip on the lead through moderate fractions. A return to his early-2024 form gives him a big chance for a barn that’s sent out plenty of live runners at this stand.
Race 12
St. Benedicts Prep
Striker Has Dial
Audacious
#7 ST. BENEDICTS PREP (4-1): Comes in off of two very sharp efforts and boasts plenty of early speed in a seven-furlong heat that doesn’t seem loaded with it. She has four top-two finishes in five tries at this distance, and Linda Rice sure seems to have this filly on the right track; #2 STRIKER HAS DIAL (5/2): Ran into Ways and Means two back and was a good second in the Wilton out of the Wilson chute earlier in the meet. She’s never run a bad one in three prior starts, and while she does tackle some older foes here, most of her opponents are fellow 3-year-olds; #5 AUDACIOUS (5-1): Won on debut after stalking a pretty fast pace at this route. Debuting at seven panels isn’t an easy thing to do, but she did a lot right that day and is certainly eligible to move forward at second asking.
Race 13
Drake’s Passage (MTO)
Mondego
Beuys
#11 MONDEGO (6-1): Cuts back in distance and gets a bit of class relief after finishing sixth against stakes-quality marathoners last time out. The outside post isn’t ideal, but he seems like the main speed in the Saturday finale and could be dangerous if he’s left alone up top; #4 BEUYS (6-1): Was one-paced here last month against a good group and gets reunited with Irad Ortiz, Jr., who rode him to a heartbreaking near-miss two starts ago downstate. He hasn’t won in a while, but this barn has heated up and the presence of a leading rider hints they mean business; #1 FREEDOM TRAIL (7/2): Makes his first start since November and danced a bunch of big dances a season ago. His recent works are sharp, for sure, and he’s a major player if he’s ready to run, but the layoff is a significant one and I don’t love closers on the rail.
Originally Published: August 2, 2024 at 7:00 p.m.
Source link : https://www.troyrecord.com/2024/08/02/horse-racing-day-18-andrew-champagnes-picks-analysis-bankroll/
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Publish date : 2024-08-02 23:04:48
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