Whitney Stakes 2024:
Automatic entry into the Breeders’ Cup Classic is on the line this week in the G1 Whitney Stakes at Saratoga. The Saratoga summer meet has gotten a lot of attention here at VSiN and this week’s spotlight race will be no different, as Mike Somich and Ed Sehon will share their thoughts later in the week.
But, let’s take a look at the full field with 12 horses entered in the 1 ⅛-mile run at Saratoga with a million dollar purse for horses aged 4 and up. Post time is at 5:42 p.m. ET on Saturday, August 4.
Here are the Whitney Stakes entries, odds, jockeys, and trainers:
PostHorseTrainerJockeyOdds1Post TimeB. RussellS. Russell20-12DisarmS. AsmussenJ. Rosario15-13National TreasureB. BaffertF. Prat9-54Warrior JohnyP. BauerT. Gaffalione20-15First MissionB. CoxF. Geroux9-26Il MiracoloA. SanoM. Franco20-17CrupiT. PletcherI. Ortiz Jr.15-18TumbarumbaB. LynchL. Saez20-19Bright FutureT. PletcherJ. Castellano5-110SkippylongstockingS. Joseph Jr.J. Ortiz8-111Arthur’s RideW. MottJ. Alvarado8-112Charge ItT. PletcherJ. Velazquez30-1
National Treasure is the clear favorite with wins in the Met Mile and Pegasus World Cup, but there are some other intriguing contenders. First Mission is the clear second choice per the morning line and Bright Future is third. First Mission is a two-time stakes winner this year and certainly looks to be the biggest threat to the favorite.
Here are some notes on the horses:
1. Post Time (20-1; Russell/Russell): The son of Frosted will make two turns for the first time, as he hits the Whitney coming off of a place finish at the Met Mile in June. He’s been a successful sprinter in his career with eight wins at seven furlongs or shorter, but has finished second in all three runs at a mile this season. Frosted was a pretty good distance runner, including a win in the 2016 Whitney, so this will be an interesting data point.
Post Time was second by half a head and never threatened National Treasure in that Met Mile gallop. It was not a good frame of reference on how the extra distance will go because the race was over so early, but he closed well against others. He has shown to like the mud and rain is in the forecast. If he likes the distance, we have a shot at a winner at a big price. If the sprinter can get out quick from the rail post, this becomes a different race for him.
2. Disarm (15-1; Asmussen/Rosario): The most intriguing horse in this field is Disarm. He came back to win an allowance off of a nine-month layoff at 1 1/16 miles and then failed to hit the board in the Stephen Foster. He’s won and hit the board at distance before, including the 2023 Matt Winn Stakes, but there are so many questions.
The very well-bred son of Gun Runner and Easy Tap had speed figures worthy of winning this race last year, but only has two data points this year and they are below average. He made a big leap from his second start to his third start last year and he might do that again here to be a factor.
3. National Treasure (9-5; Baffert/Prat): The clear favorite here is National Treasure, who looked very good in the Met Mile off a 3.5-month layoff. The trip overseas for the Saudi Cup proved fruitless on the heels of a Pegasus World Cup win at 1 ⅛, which is precisely the distance of this race. The question that I and many others have is that National Treasure only won twice in 10 starts prior to this year. Is he a late bloomer? Do we need to look at the strength of those fields?
While I think he is a deserving favorite, I really don’t see him as a runaway contender. Flavien Prat is back on the mount for Bob Baffert, which can’t be a bad thing for the 2023 Preakness Stakes winner. The extra distance might be, though.
4. Warrior Johny (20-1; Bauer/Gaffalione): To say that consistency has been a problem for Warrior Johny would be an understatement, but he is coming off of a monster performance in an Alwoc at Saratoga back on July 11. It was a race full of well-bred horses and he dominated the field with a career-best 113 Equibase Speed Figure and a second-best Beyer of 98 He’s had some really good workouts lately as well.
Joel Rosario had the ride in that one and Tyler Gaffalione has this one, as his two all-time best speed figures have come at Saratoga. Trainer Philip Bauer told DRF that he was “blown away” by the performance. Seems it would be a surprise to get another one, especially with a pretty quick turnaround, but he’s in great current form.
5. First Mission (9-2; Cox/Geroux): The connections run deep with First Mission, as the Brad Cox/Florent Geroux tandem is ready to get it going once again. After wins in the Essex Handicap and Alysheba, First Mission ran fourth in the Stephen Foster as the 4/5 favorite. He set the pace and faded over the final 1/16th, as Kingsbarns was too good and Geroux kind of pulled back a bit as others passed his tiring horse.
The extra eighth of a mile wasn’t an issue at Oaklawn in the Essex, but 1 ⅛ has been an issue in other races. First Mission has been shipped, but this will be his first race at Saratoga, so that adds another wrinkle of uncertainty for a horse with upside you have to respect, but results that make you wonder.
6. Il Miracolo (20-1; Sano/Franco): The second Gun Runner colt in the field is Il Miracolo for Antonio Sano. He was a late starter in 2023, missing the board in four straight stakes races before winning an Alwoc at Gulfstream and hitting the board in four of five races the rest of the way. Here in 2024, he was sixth in the Pegasus World Cup before hitting the board in his last three.
Il Miracolo won the Ghostzapper at Gulfstream and was third in the Gulfstream Mile and the Alysheba. He also ran second last year in the Curlin, his only start at Saratoga. In all, he’s hit the board in nine of his last 11 starts with two wins, but this will be his first 2024 race of 1 ⅛ miles. Also, it was John Velazquez in the mount for the Ghostzapper win back in March and the Alysheba third-place finish. With 20 career starts, this is Manny Franco’s first ride.
7. Crupi (15-1; Pletcher/Ortiz Jr.): Crupi missed the Triple Crown period last year, staying off the track from April 9 to July 6. That July 7 race was at Monmouth Park and became the first of five wins over the calendar year for the son of Curlin out of Todd Pletcher’s stable. His most recent run was a game effort in the Brooklyn Stakes to finish second coming off of a win at 1 ¼ miles at Saratoga in the G2 Suburban.
Crupi hit the board in the Pegasus World Cup, finishing third in a pretty competitive race. Two months later, he shipped to Dubai and that is the only time in six races that he has failed to win, place, or show. Luis Saez took that ride in Dubai. Since switching to Irad Ortiz Jr., Crupi’s status quo has returned. He’s 2-for-2 at Saratoga since breaking his maiden.
8. Tumbarumba (20-1; Lynch/Saez): In four starts here in 2024, Tumbarumba has a win and three seconds. He took a three-month layoff from March 30 to June 30 and finished second in the Hanshin Stakes at one mile in his return. He’s never won at more than a mile and only has two starts at this distance, both coming last year.
Sire Oscar Performance was a terrific turf horse with several G1 stakes wins and mare Naive Enough was a sprinter, so it isn’t a huge surprise to see minimal two-turn data points on the dirt. It is interesting to see Luis Saez in the mount for Brian Lynch here given the number of noteworthy trainers in the field.
9. Bright Future (5-1; Pletcher/Castellano): Bright Future only has nine starts across his career, but he’s made the most of them with five wins and a couple of thirds, averaging over $100,000 per start. He and National Treasure are the only horses in this G1 race with a G1 win over the last calendar year. His came in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, right here at Saratoga.
He’s only run once this year and it was a win in the Salvator Mile back in June. It’s hard to know what to make of Bright Future with only one start in the last nine months, but the 5-year-old has been very good when he’s out there. Javier Castellano is back in the mount after leading the June victory.
10. Skippylongstocking (8-1; Joseph/J. Ortiz): It is crazy to think that the son of Exaggerator and Twinkling has never run at Saratoga. Skippylongstocking has 24 starts to his name and nearly $2.4 million in earnings, but this will be the Saratoga debut. Outside of a couple maidens at the start of his career, he’s run every race at least a mile and every race but one since February 2022 has been over a mile.
A third-place finish in the Stephen Foster back in June snapped a two-race winning streak and a streak of three straight wins at 1 1/16 miles or more. Regular rider Jose L. Ortiz draws the assignment in this one. This is a step up in class, but he’s run well at distance in the past.
11. Arthur’s Ride (8-1; Mott/Alvarado): Lightly-raced 4-year-old Arthur’s Ride only had two data points as a 2-year-old and one as a 3-year-old. In three races this year, the son of Tapit and Points of Grace has two wins and a ninth-place finish. This will be just his second two-turn race, as he won over 1 ¼ miles at Saratoga back on June 7 during Belmont Stakes weekend.
Apparently that run was enough for Bill Mott to enter him in this big step up in class. Six starts, five wins. But, this is like going from Single-A to the big leagues. That hasn’t stopped the oddsmakers from giving him some respect on the morning number. His ugly data point earlier this year came on a wet track at Churchill, so keep a close eye on the weather here.
12. Charge It (30-1; Pletcher/Velazquez): Strong connections on the far outside post are likely to induce some money on Charge It. The Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez duo teams up for a ride on the son of Tapit and I’ll Take Charge. However, the results may discourage some from getting involved. He hasn’t run over a mile since October and hasn’t won since last July.
The losing streak is up to six races, with only one third-place finish to show for it in the mile-long Westchester Stakes. This is Charge It’s second time in the Whitney. He finished fourth last year, but 10 lengths back.
Whitney Stakes Picks
This is a tricky race because the favorite, National Treasure, feels vulnerable to me, but there are flaws and inconsistencies with every other contender. There are also a plethora of ponies that could fill out a trifecta. The weather is also a wrinkle with rain and thunderstorm chances. There are some veteran horses here that really don’t like mud and some of the long shots are more likely to embrace the slop.
I like Bright Future. He’s lightly raced, but there’s a skill in picking spots for your horses and I think Pletcher is doing that again here.
I also like Crupi as a long shot with Irad Ortiz on the ride and a recent win at distance at Saratoga.
The weather might be kind to Post Time, whose bloodline suggests distance may not be a problem.
National Treasure and First Mission appear in a box trifecta in case I’m overthinking this race a bit, with Bright Future and my long shot Crupi.
Using a hypothetical $50 bankroll:
$15 Win ($15)
9 Bright Future
$8 Win ($8)
7 Crupi
$3 Win ($3)
1 Post Time
$1 Box Trifecta ($24)
3/5/7/9
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Publish date : 2024-08-01 02:21:01
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