We’ve gone through every part of the swimming competition at the Paris 2024 Olympic Games. Race-by-race predictions, Vegas predictions, the data.
But zooming out to 10,000 feet, the question on everyone’s mind after last year’s World Championships is this: “who will win the swimming medals table at the Paris 2024 Olympic Games?”
Well, according to our staff, working to varying degrees of independence and never considering a holistic view, thinks it will be Australia again. You’ll recall that Australia, by gold-silver-bronze sort, won the medals table at the 2023 World Championships: their first time doing so since 2001.
Winning the swimming medals table at the Olympics would break an even longer streak: the US has won every medals table in swimming at the Olympics since the 1980 boycott year. Even when they stumble in between the Olympiads, they always rally for the Olympics.
Notwithstanding the sum of the individual picks, I still think the U.S. will win the medals table. Part of that is depth. In races where it feels like the favorite is most likely to stumble, like maybe if Gretchen Walsh can’t repeat her 100 fly from the Olympic Trials, the U.S. more often has a “second option,” in that case Torri Huske, to pick up the torch.
It feels like fewer of the Australian top picks are safe bets too. Cam McEvoy, Kyle Chalmers, and Sam Short feel more vulnerable, collectively, than Caeleb Dressel in the 100 fly and Regan Smith in the 100 back, for example.
Ryan Murphy jumping up to win the 100 back or Kate Douglass taking the 200 IM, or the US mixed medley beating China, feel more likely than, say, Elizabeth Dekkers jumping up to win the 200 fly or Lani Pallister jumping up to win the 800 free. If Ariarne Titmus were to steal a gold in the 800 free from Katie Ledecky, which feels more within the realm of reason than it has in a decade, that would shift the tide.
So ultimately, while this is Australia’s medal table to lose, I think the U.S. has higher upside. It’s going to be very, very close either way. From a team perspective, the battle is going to be a barn-burner.
Final SwimSwam Event Preview Index Medals Table
Nation
Gold
Silver
Bronze
Total
Australia
11
4
5
20
USA
10
14
9
32
China
4
2
2
9
France
2
3
1
6
Canada
2
1
4
7
Great Britain
1
3
2
6
Italy
1
1
1
3
Hungary
1
1
0
2
South Africa
1
1
0
2
Sweden
1
1
0
2
Romania
1
0
1
2
Germany
0
2
0
2
Ireland
0
1
1
2
Poland
0
1
0
1
South Korea
0
0
3
3
Hong Kong
0
0
2
2
Netherlands
0
0
1
1
New Zealand
0
0
1
1
Spain
0
0
1
1
Switzerland
0
0
1
1
Source link : https://swimswam.com/who-will-win-the-swimming-medals-table-at-the-paris-2024-olympic-games/
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Publish date : 2024-07-27 01:46:05
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