SARATOGA SPRINGS, N.Y. —
BANKROLL
BANKROLL: $1,023.75
I was critical of Thursday’s card in yesterday’s bankroll section (which questioned the inclusion of a $10,000 claiming race). However, I consider myself to be fair, and I must give NYRA a lot of credit for assembling a fantastic Friday program.
In addition to the Amsterdam for 3-year-old sprinters, there are several stakes-caliber allowance/optional claiming events making up the slate. The ninth, in particular, looks more like a Grade 3 race, with several graded stakes-type horses lining up in what may very well be a prep for a race like the Forego later this summer.
Thursday’s cards are the ones that can be chores to handicap. Friday’s cards, by contrast, put a pep in your step from start to finish.
THURSDAY’S RESULTS: Dot’s Dollar didn’t fire in the seventh, which did indeed fall apart late (just for the wrong closer). After scratches, I dropped $41, though seeing my friend The Wizard win with a horse he owns softened the blow considerably!
FRIDAY’S PLAY: I’ll focus on the seventh and eighth races, which house a pair of horses I like quite a bit. I’ll have $10 win bets on #5 BETTER BET and #2 RUN CURTIS RUN in those races, and I’ll link them with a $5 double. If one of them wins, it’s a good day. If both win, it’s a very, very good day.
TOTAL WAGERED: $25.
Best Bet: Better Bet
Longshot: Bustin Bay
Race 1
Kahfre
Valenzan Day
Mason Mania
#5 KHAFRE (3-1): Is back at what seems like the correct level after a clunker against allowance foes downstate. His wire-to-wire win two starts back was sharp, and Dylan Davis is riding as well as anyone to this point in the meet; #6 VALENZAN DAY (3-1): Is another with speed and comes in on a two-race win streak. Horses that can go two turns sure seem to have an edge coming out of the chute, and the most recent score came going longer at Aqueduct; #7 MASON MANIA (6-1): May have lost all chance at the break last time out against state-bred optional claiming foes. He comes back for a much smaller tag, and while the outside post isn’t ideal, he’s shown he can run well at this level, and a return to his early 2024 form gives him a chance.
Race 2
Good Mission (MTO)
Generous Luva
Majulu
#1 GENEROUS LUVA (7/2): Drops in for a tag after showing speed twice against state-bred maiden special weight foes downstate. She adds both blinkers and Lasix, and Irad Ortiz, Jr., opts to stay aboard when he likely had several options; #10 MAJULU (4-1): Didn’t run badly in her debut, which came in an off-the-turf event a few weeks ago. This is another adding Lasix, and given the pedigree, I have to think she’ll move forward getting onto the grass; #3 REALTA (10-1): Ran the best race of her career two starts ago, which doubled as her only turf race to date. She made up quite a bit of ground that day, and a return to her preferred surface means she could be rolling late at a price.
Race 3
Pure Force
World Record
Jefferson Street
#3 PURE FORCE (9/2): Hasn’t done anything wrong in two starts to date and may very well be the biggest price in the Grade 2 Amsterdam. I love the two-back bullet drill over the training track, and despite the only-OK win percentage, Brad Cox trainees are firing at this stand; #1 WORLD RECORD (3-1): May have been a bit too far back in the Maxfield last time out, and the rail draw means he may need to be quicker here. His wire-to-wire win two back at Churchill was sharp, and Prat sees fit to ride back; #4 JEFFERSON STREET (8/5): Ran very well last time out and might well be favored, but I have my doubts. That race fell apart up front and was against a much weaker field. Add in that the main track was playing very, very fast that day, and I’m just not sure he can replicate that kind of performance. Against this field, he may have to, and that makes him a likely underlay I need to try to beat.
Race 4
Occult
Bustin Bay
Stonewall Star
#1 OCCULT (8/5): Gets significant class relief after spending the last year and a half going against top-notch competition. She’s a Grade 3 winner with a Grade 1 placing, and the inside draw out of the Wilson chute is a big, big plus for what seems like the horse to beat; #3 BUSTIN BAY (12-1): Seems like an inflated price off of a race that was far, far shorter than her desired distance (and, as such, seems like a throwout). She loves Saratoga, has plenty of tactical speed, and should be prominent throughout; #5 STONEWALL STAR (5-1): Has hit the board in 11 of 13 lifetime starts and was second in an off-the-turf stakes race at this route last month. That day’s winner came right back to win again, and this one gets to add Lasix in what is, on paper, a drop in class (but an event that came up very, very tough for the condition).
Race 5
Outtawaterbury
Judge Rules
Dyna Point
#10 OUTTAWATERBURY (6-1): Is a tepid top pick in a race where I honestly don’t have a strong opinion. I went here because he sure seems like the main speed in a race devoid of it. I’m not sure if he really wants two turns, but he does drop in class, which could wake him up; #8 JUDGE RULES (3-1): Closed well to be second last time out in a race that had a bit more zip up front early on than this spot likely will. The rider switch to Flavien Prat is a big one, and a repeat of the last-out effort gives him a shot, but he may need to show a bit more early interest; #2 DYNA POINT (8-1): Ships up from Maryland after stepping forward in his first start for a new barn last time out. This is probably a tougher spot, but Luis Saez has been enticed to ride and any sort of a move forward gives this gelding a shot in a wide-open event.
Race 6
Off Script
Miss Welch
Accelerating
#6 OFF SCRIPT (5/2): Possesses a massive two-back bullet drill that jumps off the page in this fascinating 2-year-old event. That work was the fastest of 147 at the distance, and she hammered for $200,000 at auction last summer across the street; #9 MISS WELCH (7/2): Runs for Jeremiah Englehart, who has enjoyed plenty of success already this summer, and possesses a precocious pedigree. This daughter of Maclean’s Music is out of a mare that won first time out and has already produced first-out winner (and stakes winner) Downtown Mischief; #3 ACCELERATING (3-1): Sold for $325,000 earlier this year and is by champion sprinter Mitole. She’s got a few fast works on the tab, but the bottom-side pedigree indicates she may need a race or two (and possibly some more distance) to strut her best stuff.
Race 7
Dreamlike (MTO)
Better Bet
Be Like Clint
#5 BETTER BET (7/2): Had a very eventful trip last time out at Aqueduct in a race I have no problem drawing a line through. His two and three-back efforts were both sharp, and the presence of Irad Ortiz, Jr., sure seems like a clue in this turf marathon; #6 BE LIKE CLINT (3-1): Has run well in a pair of starts at this distance downstate and has some versatility. He closed from way back two starts ago, but was much closer last time out, which gives Javier Castellano several options; #2 VESTING (5/2): Faces winners for the first time after a wire-to-wire win last month. The connections merit respect, and he may go favored, but he sat a picture-perfect trip that day and there’s other speed (at least on paper) in this spot. He’s not impossible, but may need to improve to make it two in a row.
Race 8
Celestial Glaze (MTO)
Run Curtis Run
Mid Day Image
#2 RUN CURTIS RUN (7/2): Hasn’t won in quite a while, but likes this route and was a very, very good second behind a stakes-quality winner at the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival. His running lines show a bunch of classy horses, he draws well, and this seems like an ideal spot; #11 MID DAY IMAGE (5-1): Needs a scratch to draw in off the AE list but merits respect if he does. He’s found his form this season at Laurel in several races at this distance, and he should get plenty of pace to run at; #4 FAUCI (12-1): Doesn’t like to win, but is a fun horse to root for given his running style and ability to pick up a check. He’s hit the board in all six local starts, has a right to improve second off a long layoff, and is another that should be rolling late.
Race 9
Accretive
Zozos
Scotland
#1 ACCRETIVE (5-1): Exits a clunker in the Grade 2 True North but drops down in class and is allowed to run on Lasix. That sure seems to be the key, judging by the four starts on his page with the anti-bleeding medication, and his two wins here last summer show he likes this surface; #9 ZOZOS (4-1): Is one of many in here with lots of back class. Two starts ago, he ran third in the Grade 1 Churchill Downs on Kentucky Derby Day, and he won three stakes races a season ago. That last-out clunker raises some questions, but anything close to his 2023 form gives him a big chance; #12 SCOTLAND (6-1): Won the Curlin here a season ago and comes back to New York after a few runs at Churchill Downs. Junior Alvarado knows this one well, and the far-outside post should give horse and rider plenty of options against a classy group.
Race 10
Mission Hill
Film Academy
Wind Dancer
#5 MISSION HILL (5/2): Is approaching “now or never” status after three straight starts as a beaten favorite. The slight cutback in distance should help him, though, and his two-back effort here off the layoff was a very good effort. Another defeat, though, may put him on this handicapper’s “never again” list; #4 FILM ACADEMY (5-1): Showed speed last time out in his first start since January and has a right to improve second off the bench. There isn’t a ton of other speed in here, and I’m expecting Jose Ortiz to get aggressive out of the gate. Such a trip could mean he leads them a long way; #6 WIND DANCER (7/2): Adds blinkers in what’s just his third lifetime start and could have more room to improve than his opponents. His debut here was solid, and he wasn’t too far behind my top choice last time out.
Originally Published: July 25, 2024 at 5:12 p.m.
Source link : https://www.oneidadispatch.com/2024/07/25/horse-racing-day-12-andrew-champagnes-picks-analysis-bankroll/
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Publish date : 2024-07-25 21:16:28
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