SARATOGA SPRINGS, N.Y. —
BANKROLL
BANKROLL: $1,094.75
Sunday was an example of a good day to play the Grand Slam. I had a strong opinion in the payoff leg and left a few short prices off of my ticket. Those short prices didn’t hit the board in the opening three legs, which knocked out plenty of players.
As a result, my $18 ticket had a $1 will-pay of about $118 to my single, which went off at odds of 2-1. By playing the Grand Slam, though, I was able to significantly improve my potential payoff.
This didn’t wind up hitting, as Rocketeer was one of six second-place finishes by top picks on Sunday. At a minimum, though, it’s a reminder about the value of playing the right wagers at the right times, even if they’re not necessarily the glamorous ones.
SUNDAY’S RESULTS: See above. I dropped $30.
WEDNESDAY’S PLAY: Let’s go to the feature, the Grade 2 Honorable Miss. It’s the seventh of nine on the card, and it houses my best bet of the day, #4 CLEARLY UNHINGED. I’ll keep it simple with a $30 win bet on her in hopes that we get the 5-1 morning line price.
TOTAL WAGERED: $30.
SELECTIONS/ANALYSIS
Best Bet: Clearly Unhinged, Race 7
Longshot: Leon Blue, Race 2
Race 1
Macaw
Two Tons of Fun
Shakin the Belle
#2 MACAW (4/5): Will be a popular pick in the Wednesday lid-lifter on a significant class drop in his first start for new trainer Linda Rice. The price doesn’t excite me, but neither does this field, and anything close to his two and three-back efforts would likely make him very tough to beat; #1 TWO TONS OF FUN (9/2): Drops in for a tag after a failed turf experiment last time out. His two prior outings downstate weren’t terrible, and perhaps the shallower waters will wake him up; #5 SHAKIN THE BELLE (5-1): Has hit the board in his last three outings, all against similar stock, and figures to be on or near the lead from the jump. Flavien Prat has gotten to know him well over his last few starts, and he’s off to a flying start at the meet.
Race 2
Leon Blue
Army Proud
Pay the Juice
#5 LEON BLUE (10-1): Hammered for $100,000 earlier this year and has been working very well ahead of his unveiling. He’s kin to multiple stakes winner Allure of Money, and given the likely namesake (late trainer Leon “Blue” Blusiewicz), this would be a very popular winner; #9 ARMY PROUD (6-1): Debuts for Joe Sharp, whose first-out numbers aren’t great but get much better if you solely focus on debuting turf runners. His dam, Jc’s Shooting Star, was a New York stalwart, and this son of Army Rule has a right to be a runner; #7 PAY THE JUICE (7/2): Sold for $200,000 in March and has been working steadily for Shug McGaughey. Flavien Prat sees fit to ride, and while this barn tends to be patient with young horses, there’s reason to think he’s well-meant first time out.
Race 3
Malu
Chasing Daylight
Echo in Eternity
#7 MALU (9/2): Was a runaway winner here just a week ago and wheels right back first off the claim for Linda Rice, who’s done well with that move in the past. Toss the two-back, two-turn clunker at Churchill, and her record looks far better; #9 CHASING DAYLIGHT (9/5): Will likely go favored here, but she hits me as the type of chalk you’re supposed to go against. She’s winless in six starts this season, the outside draw doesn’t usually work well out of the Wilson chute, and these connections have yet to get going at this meet; #3 ECHO IN ETERNITY (6-1): Returns to dirt after a failed turf try last time out. Javier Castellano sees fit to ride back after that, which is encouraging, and she’s run well enough a few times this season to merit consideration in deeper exotics.
Race 4
Big Ego
Stanley Rough
Janssen
#1 BIG EGO (6/5): Could continue a big day for the Linda Rice barn, as she’ll saddle another short-priced runner here. He chased a much-the-best winner here last month, looks like the main speed, and should be able to capitalize on an inside draw out of the chute; #8 STANLEY ROUGH (10-1): Was never a factor last time out, but ignore that race and his form looks much better than his likely price. His two-back effort was a solid one, and against an uninspiring field for the level, a similar type of run could get him a big check; #9 JANSSEN (6-1): Looks like the only other possible speed in the race, aside from the chalk. Turf clearly isn’t what he wants, judging by the last-out clunker, and he ran second in three straight races at this level earlier this year.
Race 5
Andy Cant (MTO)
Sanderson
Scat Tu Tap
#8 SANDERSON (7/2): Was pretty highly-regarded last season, when his connections tried him in the Central Park at Aqueduct. The drop in for a $50,000 tag is curious, but he had every right to need his 2024 debut last month, and this barn is scorching at the moment; #6 SCAT TU TAP (3-1): Probably went just a bit too long last time out and gets both a shorter distance and a class drop here. If he can bring his Gulfstream Park form to upstate New York, he’ll have a big shot; #7 FUNNY UNCLE (10-1): Has a right to improve on turf in his second start off the claim for Mike Maker. His pedigree is all-turf, and his only try on it was quite a while ago. His dirt form carrying over to the lawn would give him a chance at a nice price.
Race 6
Cinderella’s Cause (MTO)
Overacting
Spooky Lady
#7 OVERACTING (7/2): Wanted no part of an off-the-turf race last time out and goes back to her preferred surface here. Her 2024 debut was easily her best race yet, and further improvement third off the bench for Chad Brown would make her a handful; #3 SPOOKY LADY (3-1): Is a consistent sort that should be forwardly-placed beneath Flavien Prat. She was a close-up third last time out against similar company, and she may be the one they have to catch turning for home; #5 SPINNING COLORS (6-1): Returns after a break of more than 10 months, and she got pretty sharp last summer before going to the sidelines. One of those races was a win at this route, and the presence of jockey John Velazquez is encouraging.
Race 7
Clearly Unhinged
Munnys Gold
Accede
#4 CLEARLY UNHINGED (5-1): Is 2-for-2 this season after a trainer switch to Steve Asmussen. One of those wins was a score in the Grade 3 Winning Colors at Churchill. She seems to have only improved since a runner-up finish here in last season’s Grade 1 Test, and she may provide value in the Grade 2 Honorable Miss; #8 MUNNYS GOLD (2-1): Cruised home over a much weaker field here last month and dives back into deeper waters. Her best race could win this, sure, but it’s worth noting she’s 4-for-4 with Lasix, 0-for-3 without it, and will be a very short price against some heavy-hitting female sprinters; #1 ACCEDE (4-1): Is another that has progressed at age four, and she’ll be looking for her fourth straight victory here. She comes in off of a gutty win in a Grade 2 downstate, and a similar effort likely gets her a check here.
Race 8
Mystic Night (MTO)
Bourbon Day
Kalik
#2 BOURBON DAY (9/2): Ships in after five wins in his last 10 starts, including a last-out score at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Prat hopping aboard is absolutely a plus, especially given his history of success for this barn (one of the highest-percentage outfits in the country); #8 KALIK (3-1): Won the Grade 2 Pennine Ridge a season ago but hasn’t come close to those heights since. His last outing was certainly against better horses, and runner-up Major Dude came back to win over the weekend, but this drop is an alarming one, even by the standards of an aggressive barn that isn’t afraid to lose horses via the claim box; #11 PAROS (7/2): Draws an absolutely terrible post but is talented enough to merit consideration. His last-out win against similar was solid, and he’d benefit from a pace meltdown (especially if jockey Jose Ortiz can find a way to save ground).
Race 9
Lucky and Gorgeous
Lu’s Redemption
Saving Memories
#4 LUCKY AND GORGEOUS (7/2): Finally got to run on turf last time out and relished the new surface. She was second behind a much-the-best winner that day, Prat rides back, and any sort of progression would give her a big chance in the nightcap; #7 LU’S REDEMPTION (4-1): Runs for a tag for the first time, which isn’t as big a drop in a state-bred race as it is against open company but is still a notable class move. Her two efforts downstate weren’t necessarily bad, and she doesn’t have to move forward all that much; #10 SAVING MEMORIES (10-1): Doesn’t have the best form on paper, but was just three lengths behind my top pick last time out. Another far-outside draw certainly doesn’t help, but if you’re going price-shopping, it’s not like a three-length reversal on one of the favorites is totally out of the question.
Originally Published: July 23, 2024 at 5:00 p.m.
Source link : https://www.saratogian.com/2024/07/23/horse-racing-day-10-andrew-champagnes-picks-analysis-bankroll/
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Publish date : 2024-07-24 03:00:29
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